Marysville, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

308
FXUS66 KSEW 151719 AAB
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1019 AM PDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong and moist frontal system will bring
widespread rain across the region today into Saturday. Some of the
rain could be heavy at times, especially along the coast and in
the mountains. Gusty southwest winds are also expected this
afternoon along the coast and interior waters. Next week appears
mostly dry, with temperatures warming up towards average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.../As of 10 AM/...Rain
continues to fill in across the Olympic Peninsula and the
northern interior, which allows for the forecast to remain on
track. This afternoon and evening will remain the primary period
of concern for hydrologic impacts. The previous discussion
follows. 62

Models have the trough from the Alaska continuing to dig southward
through today, with a jet core funneling in some moisture from the
Pacific inland today. Forecast soundings show no problem with the
PWATs remaining high at around 1.75" (quite a bit above normal by
nearly an inch).

The HREF and deterministic remain excited about round two of rain
bringing heavier rain across the region this afternoon into
Saturday (as the cold front begins to catch up to the warm front
and occludes). WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
with the precipitation expected today. Main concern is if some of
the rainfall rates get heavy enough to produce flooding concerns
(particularly over burn scars and urban areas and soils that are
very dry from the summer heat - see hydrology section below). The
models still are lacking quite a bit of instability with this
system today, so rainfall rates will likely remain under 0.50"/hr
(even at the 90th percentile of the HREF). The chance of thunder
remains very low today, but can`t rule out a strike or two along
the coast and in the Cascades today as the first line from round
two comes through. The forecast for additional rain remains on
track, with the second round expected to produce another 0.5-1" of
rain in the interior through Saturday, 1.5-3" along the Pacific
Coast, and another 2-4" in the Olympics and Cascades (with
localized 5+" totals possible in the Cascades). One concern with
the moisture plume moving onshore is satellite has shown slight
disruption to the flow with the trough digging southward (some
drier air intruding in). Nevertheless, the models have the 850 mb
winds continuing to bring in low level moisture into the region
through tonight/Saturday.

Gusty southwest winds are also expected this afternoon in between
fronts. The windiest locations will be the Pacific Coast (gusts
of 25-30 mph), and the interior (particularly along the waters
with similar gusts of 25-35 mph). The chance that winds exceed 35
mph is greatest in western Whatcom and Skagit Counties, with a
couple isolated gusts to 40 mph possible. Temperatures today are
on the cool side (most will remain below 70). Rain today should
keep smoke to a minimum across the region.

Widespread rain will taper down to showers going into Saturday.
Post front, showers will linger through the region. The atmosphere
destabilizes a bit, so will have to watch for possible thunder if
a convergence zone gets going north of Seattle (favored area with
just over 100 J/kg of CAPE). Otherwise, some clouds will begin to
clear out in the interior Saturday and Sunday afternoon, with rain
chances retreating to the waters offshore. Highs Saturday and
Sunday will be a touch warmer (few more low to mid 70s in the
interior). Many will see lows drop into the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Models maintain the trough
pattern over the region through midweek (a brief Omega in far
northern Canada keeps the low offshore until it breaks down). The
weather for the first part of the week under the trough will
mostly dry (except for some shower chances along the coast), and
temperatures will begin to slightly warm through the week. Once
the pattern zones out Wednesday through the week end, temperatures
will get back into the 70s to low 80s in the interior. Sunshine
will also become plentiful from Wednesday through the end of the
week.

HPR

&&

.AVIATION...West southwesterly flow aloft this morning becoming
strong this afternoon and evening. Flow aloft easing Saturday
morning. Cold front offshore reaching the coast late afternoon
moving through the interior in the evening. Low level onshore flow
behind the front Saturday morning.

Mostly MVFR ceilings with LIFR along the coast, near the Strait
of Juan de Fuca and over the Kitsap peninsula. Ceilings remaining MVFR/IFR
through the day. Rain ahead of cold front spreading over area this
afternoon with local visibility 3-5sm. Little improvement in the
ceilings behind the front overnight with visibility restrictions
coming to an end. Breezy southerly surface winds developing midday
with 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots in the northern
portion of the area. Winds easing behind the front overnight.

KSEA...MVFR ceilings with IFR at times at times until 15z.
Visibility lowering to 3-5sm in light rain after 20z. Frontal
passage this evening but ceilings remaining MVFR post frontal
overnight. South southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15
to 20 knots gusting 25 to 30 knots around 22z. Winds becoming
southwest 10 to 15 knots after 04z. Felton

&&

.MARINE...A cold front will move across the waters tonight. A
weak surface trough will remain over the area Saturday. High
pressure will briefly build back over the coastal waters Sunday.
Additional weaker systems may move into the area waters early next
week.

Small craft advisory south southeasterly winds over all but the
Central and Western Strait of Juan de Fuca today into tonight.
Winds easing behind the front tonight with sub advisory winds
forecast by Saturday morning. No headlines forecasted Saturday
into the first part of next week. Felton

&&

.HYDROLOGY...As mentioned above, a strong and unseasonably moist
frontal system will move across the area today into Saturday,
bringing with it a period of heavy rainfall across the area, with
widespread 2-4" with 5+" possible over the higher peaks. This
system will bring with it a myriad of hydrologic issues. Very dry
antecedent conditions has left area soil moisture values well
below average, which agrees well with our current drought
conditions. That being said, the soils have hardened, which poses
the risk of significant surface runoff. There is uncertainty in
this, however, as the light rain through the first half of Friday
may be enough to make the soil more permeable and curtail some of
the hydrologic impacts of the system.

As mentioned in the hydrologic outlook, the primary impacts will
include: flooding of urban areas and flat agricultural lands, some
small streams and creeks may flood if enough runoff is created,
and a low (but non-zero) probability of impacts to burn scars,
including flash flooding, debris flows, and other falling debris.

While no rivers are forecast to flood, sharp rises are forecast on
area rivers. These rises will pose a threat to anyone engaging in
recreational activities in area rivers, those in or near the
river valleys, and along trails and forest roads.

Heavy rain should end following the frontal passage early Saturday
morning, but high river flows will linger throughout the day on
Saturday.

62/HPR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty
     Inlet-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
     Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland
     Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood
     Canal.

&&

$$